Jay Ulfelder
Jay Ulfelder
Social scientist
Verified email at hks.harvard.edu - Homepage
Title
Cited by
Cited by
Year
A global model for forecasting political instability
JA Goldstone, RH Bates, DL Epstein, TR Gurr, MB Lustik, MG Marshall, ...
American Journal of Political Science 54 (1), 190-208, 2010
10852010
Natural-resource wealth and the survival of autocracy
J Ulfelder
Comparative political studies 40 (8), 995-1018, 2007
3172007
Contentious collective action and the breakdown of authoritarian regimes
J Ulfelder
International Political Science Review 26 (3), 311-334, 2005
2272005
Can structural conditions explain the onset of nonviolent uprisings?
E Chenoweth, J Ulfelder
Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (2), 298-324, 2017
1552017
Modelling Transitions to and from Democracy
J Ulfelder, M Lustik
Democratisation 14 (3), 351-387, 2007
1312007
How to construct stable democracies
JA Goldstone, J Ulfelder
The Washington Quarterly 28 (1), 7-20, 2004
1052004
Assessing risks of state-sponsored mass killing
J Ulfelder, B Valentino
Available at SSRN 1703426, 2008
842008
Political Instability Task Force Report: Phase IV Findings
RH Bates, DL Epstein, JA Goldstone, TR Gurr, B Harff, CH Kahl, K Knight, ...
McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation 230, 2003
712003
It’s all about state structure: New findings on revolutionary origins from global data
J Goldstone, T Gurr, M Marshall, J Vargas
Homo Oeconomicus 21 (3), 429-455, 2004
372004
International integration and democratization: an event history analysis
J Ulfelder
Democratisation 15 (2), 272-296, 2008
282008
Forecasting onsets of mass killing
J Ulfelder
Available at SSRN 2056306, 2012
272012
Dilemmas of Democratic Consolidation: A Game-theory Approach
J Ulfelder
FirstForumPress, 2010
262010
Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types
S Minhas, J Ulfelder, MD Ward
Research & Politics 2 (3), 2053168015589217, 2015
152015
A multimodel ensemble for forecasting onsets of state-sponsored mass killing
J Ulfelder
APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, 2013
122013
Baltic protest in the Gorbachev era: movement content and dynamics
J Ulfelder
The Global Review of Ethnopolitics 3 (3-4), 23-43, 2004
122004
Do Observables Really Produce Better Data? Problems with the ACLP Data Set for the Analysis of Regime Survival
J Ulfelder
Working paper, Science Applications International Corporation, 2006
102006
Pathways to Political Liberalization in Dictatorships
J Ulfelder
Available at SSRN 1532791, 2009
82009
Economic growth and political instability
PT Brandt, J Ulfelder
Available at SSRN 1907643, 2011
62011
Beyond democracy
JA Goldstone, TR Gurr, MG Marshall, J Ulfelder
Combat Political Violence Competition, 2003
62003
Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods
J Ulfelder
Available at SSRN 2156234, 2012
32012
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Articles 1–20